Soybeans in central Iowa, 8/14
Back in June, there was concern that the world would face food shortages because of flood damage to Midwest crops. But, this week, USDA reported that farmers now are on track to harvest the second largest corn crop and fourth largest soybean crop in history. What a turn-around--from food shortages to bin buster in less than two months. Yes, weather has been ideal, crop experts and meteorologists say. But is there more to the story than the USDA numbers?
USDA's reporting system, routinely criticized by some farmers, seems about as scientific as such a process can be--it's based primarily on phone interviews of 29,500 producers. In June, USDA agents even went back to 8,910 tracts in the Midwest to document the impacts of flooding on planted acreage and harvest intentions.
Windshield tours are a kind of sport for farmers. You really can't tell all that much from the road. But what does it mean when a whole bunch of farmers are starting to see the same thing?
My picture here was taken of a field I've been watching since the heavy rains inundated the ground last spring. It's about a mile east of the Des Moines River, and a mile north of I-80, pretty much smack dab in the middle of Iowa and the Corn Belt. It shows an area of late soybeans that were planted in a drowned-out corner of a corn field. As you can see, the planting got doused a second time. In central Iowa, you can find a lot of areas that look like this--late planted crops racing to get under the frost finish line. (Here are some other views from my tour this morning; it ain't pretty: August 14 tour.)
My picture here was taken of a field I've been watching since the heavy rains inundated the ground last spring. It's about a mile east of the Des Moines River, and a mile north of I-80, pretty much smack dab in the middle of Iowa and the Corn Belt. It shows an area of late soybeans that were planted in a drowned-out corner of a corn field. As you can see, the planting got doused a second time. In central Iowa, you can find a lot of areas that look like this--late planted crops racing to get under the frost finish line. (Here are some other views from my tour this morning; it ain't pretty: August 14 tour.)
According to farmers in Marketing Talk, windshield tours from around the country are revealing a host of problems for Midwest corn and soybeans: spotty stands, heavy weed and insect pressure, disease, and so on. Others are reporting a crop that has shown great resiliency: "Cool wet start, and this crop sure looks like it's trying to finish out like normal," said one farmer in the discussion.
We all know these road tours are just a kind of talk show before the big game involving combines this fall. Maybe, though, the discussion helps us better understand the drama we've seen this year. And one thing seems sure: "Rough ride when combines start rolling no matter who is right," as one farmer put it.
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