Of course, it's something of a national past-time to second guess the weather man. But farmers can make better decisions themselves if they know a more about what goes into making a forecast, one ag meteorologist told Agriculture Online.
"One thing I feel that the National Weather Service does not convey well to the public is that different forecasts have differing levels of confidence," says Brad Rippey, a meteorologist with the USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility. "When a weather pattern is 'locked in,' forecasts out to a couple of weeks can be quite accurate. Other times, when the atmosphere is in transition, forecasts beyond a few days are fraught with error."
Farmers can look at computer models to determine whether a forecast is high or low confidence, Rippey says. A popular Web site to view a model output:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis
All the new technology notwithstanding, consider the challenge of a weather forecast. Rippey puts it this way: "...the purpose of a short-range forecast it to try to determine the exact position of every molecule of air and water vapor in our atmosphere. After a few days, chaos (such as the proverbial butterfly flapping its wings) undermines those efforts."
1 comment:
It sure looks favorably dry for the saturated western Corn Belt over the next several days, although most areas will need additional time to return to full-scale planting operations. However, there are hints that a wetter pattern will return to the Midwest around the middle of May.
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